The Developing EconomiesVolume 3, Issue 3 p. 323-342 Free Access METHODS OF COMPILING CROP STATISTICS IN CHINA* YOSHIRŌ MATSUDA, YOSHIRŌ MATSUDASearch for more papers by this author YOSHIRŌ MATSUDA, YOSHIRŌ MATSUDASearch for more papers by this author First published: September 1965 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.1965.tb00762.xCitations: 2 * This is a revised version of a part of the wirter's earlier paper published as Chap. 3 of S. Ishikawa (ed.), Chūgoku Keizai Hatten no TŌkei-teki Kenkyū-III- (Statistical Studies on Economic Development in China -III-), Tokyo, The Institute of Asian Economic Affairs, 1962, pp. 208–229. Acknowledgements are due to Professor Shigeru Ishikawa, who wrote the excellent seminal paper in this field, “Chūgoku no NŌsakubutsu Shūkaku TŌkei-hŌ” (Method of Compiling Agricultural Outputs), ECAFE Tsūshin (ECAFE Information), No. 208, for his kind permission to use his collection of official Chinese publications and for his painstaking scrutiny of the earlier versions at each stage of rewriting. The autor is also grateful to Professor Mataji Umemura, Mr. Yuichi Kanda, Dr. Yoshio Tsumura, Professor Tairoku Kose, and Dr. John Lossing Buck who read the manussripts and gave valuable comments and criticism. But the writer is solely responsible for any possible error. AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Reference 1 As to the details, see the writer's mimeographed paper, “ Methods of Compling Crop Statistics in China,” issued by the Computing Centre of Otaru University, 1965. 2 This system was established under the influence and guidance of experts from the Soviet Union. Chou Hung, “ Agricultural Statistics Have Basically Reflected Marked Changes in Rural Economy,” Tungchi Kungtso (TCKT, Statistical Work), No. 18, 1957; Hsieh Mu-ch'iao, “Preliminary Experiences of Our Country's Statistical Activities during the Period of the First Five-Year Plan and Their Future Tasks,” TCKT, no. 21, 1957. 1 Hsieh Mu-ch'iao, “Make Big Effort to Improve Agricultural Statistics,” TCKT, no. 22, 1957; M. V. Krishnappa et al., Report of the Indian Delegatin to China on Agricultural Planning and Techniques, New Delhi, 1956, p. 88. 2 Hsieh Mu-ch'iao, “ Pay Big Effort….. 3 M. V. Krishnappa et al., pp. 81– 86. 4 “ Directions for the National Statistical Activities during 1956, Proclaimed on the 20th of February, 1956,” Tungchi Kungtso Tunghsin (TCKTTH, Reports of Statistical Work), No. 5, 1956. 1 Central Agricultural Laboratory, Ministry of Industry, Crop Report, Vol. 3, No. 8 1934, pp. 159 ff. 2 Motonosuke Amano, Chūgoku no Tochi-Kaikaku (Land Reform in China), Asian Economic Study Series No. 34, Tokyo , The Institute of Asian Economic Affairs, 1962, pp. 55– 56, 65–66, 98. 3 Chou Hung, “ Agricultural Statistics….. 4 Liu Jui-lung, “Reports at the Symposium on National Agricultural Statistical Activities,” TCKT, no. 23, 1957. In 1955, Anhui and Chianghsi Provinces executed a sample survey of this sort. See Fang Ch'a, “Several New Schedules Executed for the Present Agricultural Statistical Work,” TCKT, no. 8, 1957. 1 Editorial of TCKTTH, “Earnestly Enforce the 1956 System of Various Statistical Reporting Tables on Agriculture,” TCKTTH, no. 6, 1956. 2 Chou Hung, “Agricultural Statistics…”; Statistical Bureau, Szechuan Provincial Government, “Method of Stratification and Sampling in the Survey of Agricultural Crops,” TCKT, no. 2, 1957. 3 Hsieh Mu-ch'iao, “ Make Big Effort….. 4 Hsieh Mu-ch‘iao, “ Make Big Effort…”; ditto, “Preliminary Experiences of….. 5 Hsieh Mu-ch'iao mentioned in the above-cited reports two defects of the periodic reporting system: (a) since it requires a lot of work for enumeration, the State Statistical Bureau cannot receive reports before the year-end and, in case where reporting is made on the basis of the year-end account of the Co-operatives, before the second quarter of the following year. Thereby its practical importance as reference material for drawing up plans is reduced; (b) there is underestimation of output not only through a leakage of output in the Co-operative member's “private plot” and the inaccuracy of the independent farmer's outputs but also through a fairly widespread practice of under-reporting on the side of the Co-operatives. As for the state of delay of the Periodic Reports from the Provinces, a responsible offiical of the State Stiatistical Bureau disclosed the following percentage figures:. 16 Delayed Reports More than One Month's Delay No Reports. 1955 60.3% (23.7%) 9.3%. 1956 46.3% (10.9%) 8.4%. 17 See, Huang Chien-t'o, “Realistically Summarize Past Experiences and Make Efforts to Improve the Agricultual Statistical Activities,” TCKT, no. 8, 1957. 1 Editorial of TCKT, “Pay Effort to Improve the Activities of Agricultural Crop Survey,” TCKT, no. 4, 1958. 2 Dr. P. C. Mahalanobis and others visited China to give lectures on sampling survey (See Chu Cheng, “Professor Mahalanobis, a Famous Indian Statistician, Gives Lectures on Statistics in Our Country,” TCKT, no. 15, 1957). An Acting Director of the State Statistical Bureau, Wang Szu-hua, went to India for inspection from December, 1956 to January, 1957, and on returning to China he advocated positively in his reports the adoption of the sampling survey methods. (Wang Szu-hua, “Introducing the Statistical Activities used in India and Recommending the Enforcement of the Sample Survey on a Nation-Wide Scale,” TCKT, no. 6, 1957.). 1 Shigeru Ishikawa, “Chūgoku ni okeru Saikin no NŌgyŌgijutsu-Kaikaku ni tsuite” (Latest Changes in Agricultural Techniques in China), Ajia Keizai, Vol. III, No. 1, 1962. 2 It was stated that out of the total increase of cultivated areas during the First Five-Year Plan Period, about 198 million acres should have been attributed to the disclosure of past leakages before collectivization. Cf. Hsiao Yü, “ Reclaim Waste Land to Enlarge Farmland,” Chihua Chingchi (CHCC, Planned Economy), No. 2, 1958. 3 The cultivated areas of each crop which should have been provided for by a land utilization survey were very roughly estimated. For, in case of minor crops, especially when they are sown between the ridges of other crops of sown mixed, the sown areas were converted into figures comparable to other major crops using very rough conversions coefficients. (Wang Kuang-sên, “ Prelimnary Treatise on How to Define the Indicators of the Average Annual Output of Food-Grains per Mouand How to Calculate Them,” Tungchi Yenchiu (Statistical Studies), No. 1, 1958, pp. 33– 38, esp., p. 38; Huang Mêng-fan, “Agricultural Output Statistics,” in Hsü Ch'ien et al., Lectures on Economic Statistics, 1957, Peking, The Statistical Publishing Company, pp. 111--122, esp., p. 113.) Meanwhile, the margin of error is likely to be small and at least constant, if the cultivation methods as well as the rotation system remains unchanged. But, in the period of the Great Leap Foward in 1958 which brought about the expansion of the areas sown with rice and changes in the crop-rotation system, the areas sown with minor crops seem to have undergone a marked change and the errors of sown area might have been concentrated in minor crop areas. This inference may explain the higher rates of error in minor crops and potatoes. 1 Tao Jan, “ Concluding Report at the Forum on the National Crop Survey at Chengtu, December 25, 1958,” Chihua yü Tungchi (CHTC, Plan and Statistics); No. 11, 1959. 2 Hsieh Mu-ch'iao, “ Preliminary Experiences of….. 1 John Lossing Buck divided China into a wheat zone and a lowland rice zone. He subdivided them further into eight areas: spring wheat area, winter wheat and millet area, winter wheat and kaoliang area, Yangtze River rice and wheat area, rice and tea area, Szechwan rice area, double-cropping rice area and Hsinan rice area. Each region extended over several provinces and did not coincide with the boundaries of administrative divisions ( Land Utilization in China, Shanghai , The Commercial Press, Ltd., 1937, Chap. II, pp. 23 ff.). Meanwhile, the appropriate stratification is to stratify the heterogeneous universe into several strata of normally distributed homogeneous populations and to make smaller the intra-strat variances. The more appropriate the stratification, the higher is the efficiency of estimates. In the case of China, J. L. Buck's survey showed that the variance of output per acre within an hsien was as large as that within provincial boundaries. 2 Hsieh Mu-ch'iao, “ Preliminary Experiences of….. 3 In other words, under the given cost function of the survey, what is aimed at is to determine optimum allocation of samples so as to minimize the variance. 1 Agricultural Statistical Branch, State Statistical Bureau, “Several Basic Experiences from the National Farm Household Budget Survey,” TCKTTH, no. 10, 1956. According to the examples of Hunan Province where the statistical field work has been active, 247 households were chosen out of 3,575 in 9 villages among 9 hsiang during 1952--1954. (This province had about 8,078 thousands of households in 1957. See Hunan Agricultural College, Hunan Agriculture, Peking, Higher Education Publishing company, 1958, p. 55.) Since 1956, 510 households have been allocated to 34 master samples. See Committee for Compiling Economic Data, Typological Rural Economic Surveys of Eight Provinces, Peking, The Financial and Economic Publishing Compnay, 1957; Bureau of Statistics of Hunan Province, “We developed and Utilized the Farm Household Budget Survey,”TCKT, No. 1, 1958. On this survey, see YoshirŌ Matsuda, “Chūgoku NŌgyŌ-seisan-tŌkei no Ichi Gimmi” (A Review of Chinese Agricultural Production Statistics), in Shigeru Ishikawa (ed.), op. cit., esp., spp. 229–233. 2 Ho Kan, “Review of the Biases of the Farm Household Budget Survey,” TCKTTH, no. 18, 1956. 1 Division of Statistics of Ch'ang-shu Hsien in Kiangsu Province, “ Method and Experiments for the Estimation of Agricultural Outputs in Ch'ang-shu Hsien,” TCKT, Nos. 3– 4, 1958. 1 Bureau of Statistics of Szechwan Province, “Techniques of the Typological Sampling Survey of Agricultural Outputs,” TCKT, no. 2, 1957. 1 Agricultural Statistical Branch, State Statistical Bureau, Experiences of the Agricultural Output Survey, Peking , The Statistical Publishing Company, 1960 and Hsü Hsiang-hsin, “Reconsiderations of the Agricultural Output Survey—Information from the National Conference on the Agricultural Output Survey,” CHTC, no. 11, 1959. 2 The figures of each province were collected from scattered explanations, but the units of measure used were so divergent that the present writer has reproduced them without any conversion. 3 See also Wu Kuang-t'ang, “Experiences of the Agricultural Output Survey,” CHTC, no. 11, 1959. 4 For example, the exaggeration of the forecasts amounted to 1.3% at 11 representative plots, 58 mou in area, which were selected out of 5 Production Brigades of 5 Communes in Fuyang Hsien (Agricultural Statistical Branch, the State Statistical Bureau, Experiences of…, p. 16). Forecast Yield per Acre (catty/mou) 194. 36 Crop-cutting Area's Output* (catty/mou) 191.5. * Some of the areas which were used for crop-cutting experiments were not excluded, so that this figure might have been lower than the actual production. 1 Agricultural Statistical Branch, the State Statistical Bureau, Experiences of.., p. 18. 1 Examples illustrating the accuracy of the three methods are shown below. (Methods Estimates (ton) Actual Output (ton) Rate of Error (%) Place. (i) 34,365 35,647 -4 Fengtung Commune in Chingan Hsien. (ii) 2,400 4,0001) -67 Changan Commune in Fuchin District2). (iii) n.a. n.a. 20 Shangchia Commune in Chaotung Hsien3). Notes: 1) Average of the People's Commune. 2 Output of maize per shang of one k'uai. [1 shang equals 15 mou, and 1 k'uai equals 3 tuan.]. 3 4 Production Parties. Source: Agricultural Statistical Branch, the State Statistical Bureau, Experiences of…, pp. 41– 42. 1 The three methods were applied to the late-ripenning rice harvested in autumn. Output per Unit (catty per mou) Rate of Error (%). Typological sampling (i) 442 5.6. Typological sampling (ii) 469 0.2. Random sampling (iii) 471 0.6. Actual output 468. Source: Agricultural Statistical Branch, the State Statistical Bureau, Experiences of…, pp. 30 ff. 1 The area to be crop cut is shown in Table 1, but it is not certain whether the area was the crop-cut area or total sample allocated area. Prof. M. Umemura comments that from his experience in Japan, the area was so large as crop-cutting areas that it seems to correspond to the total sample allocated area. Dr. Y. Tsumura, formerly in charge of framing the sample design for Japanese agricultural output statistcs at the Division of Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, suggest that in developing countries the crop-cutting area usually becomes wider due to the low level of statisticians' skill and knowledge, therefore, there still remains the possibility that the abovementioned area was the area to be crop-out. This problem should be left for future study. Citing Literature Volume3, Issue3September 1965Pages 323-342 ReferencesRelatedInformation